Despite the geopolitical situation, Spanish airlines anticipate a 5.7% increase in scheduled seating over the summer, with even greater increases in intra-European and intercontinental flights. This growth in Alicante reaches 14.1%, and they do not anticipate any paraffin shortages that would impede operations, as Spain has a high refining capacity.
Javier Gándara, the president of the Airline Association (ALA), acknowledges that the demand for tickets may decline if ticket prices increase. However, the migration of travellers from conflict zones to Spain will have a beneficial impact.
He stated that it is currently challenging to predict whether ticket prices will increase, as airlines will need to determine whether to include the fuel price increase in their profit and loss statements or to pass it on to passengers. Additionally, he does not anticipate any flight cancellations. At a press conference yesterday, Tuesday April 21st, he clarified that the petroleum supply is guaranteed and that producers are increasing their production.
Companies in Spain consume between 80 and 85% refined fuel, while only 11.4% of the crude oil imported from the conflict zone is sourced from the region. Nevertheless, Gándara has used this occasion to advocate for an increase in the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
The cost of paraffin has increased twofold
The conflict in the Middle East does not have a substantial impact on Spanish airlines, as their traffic to the region accounts for only 1.5% of their movements. However, it does affect the prices of aviation fuel, kerosene or “jet fuel,” which have increased significantly in comparison to the price of oil due to the more expensive refining process and logistics.
As a result, the price of a barrel of crude oil has increased by 60% since the US and Israeli attack on Iran at the end of February, while the price of aircraft fuel has risen by 100%, from $700 per metric tonne to the current $1,400-$1,500.
In contrast to the United States, Spanish and European companies generally have financial hedges for their fuel costs several quarters in advance, with 70-80% of these hedges already in place for the summer. This enables them to more effectively absorb the sudden increase in prices, although they are currently stockpiling for future periods at the current high prices.
Approximately 260 million seats are available for the summer
Spain may derive advantages from the migration of tourists from the eastern Mediterranean, where destinations that compete with Spain, such as Turkey, are directed toward the national coastlines.
In contrast, the demand for travel may be slightly diminished if the conflict in Iran continues to affect prices, resulting in a reduction in disposable income.
Airlines have allocated nearly 260 million seats for the forthcoming season, which represents a 5.7% increase from the previous year. This figure has increased by 3.2% between January and March.
Alicante’s scheduled seats are nearly 16.9 million, representing a 14.1% increase.
The trends in domestic traffic are inconsistent, with a 1.3% decrease to 43.8 million passengers, as well as intra-European traffic (up 5.3% to 80.9 million) and intercontinental traffic (up 10.3% to a total of 15.3 million).
The Canary Islands have experienced a 2.5% decrease in domestic traffic, which has begun to moderate following the significant post-Covid increases. This is due to the fact that the region experienced double-digit growth last summer.
ALA observed a 2.3% increase in flights to 1.03 million during its winter review, which took place from October 2025 to the end of March 2026. However, the number of passengers increased by 3.7% (just over 140 million) due to the operation of larger and more completely occupied aircraft.