The arrival of October could bring a significant increase to gas bills for households on the regulated tariff. The Spanish Consumers and Users Organisation estimates that, if its predictions for the October 1st review are accurate, a typical household with heating could see its annual bill rise from around €600 to around €910. That is approximately €310 more, a 54% increase in the example used by the organisation.
The figure has a specific scope: it corresponds to a household with a TUR.2 tariff and an annual consumption of 9,000 kilowatt-hours. It does not mean that all families in the Valencian Community will pay an additional 310 euro, nor that this amount will be collected all at once in October. It is an annual estimate based on a specific consumption profile. The new tariff price still needs to be finalised in the official review.
Why the organisation predicts a price increase
The Last Resort Tariff, known as TUR, is the regulated tariff for natural gas. Its price is reviewed quarterly, including on October 1st. The organisation warns that in the last quarter of the year, seasonal gas, whose cost represents approximately 47% of the supply and whose price is expected to rise, gains weight in the calculation.
Based on this data, the organisation estimates that the variable price of the TUR.2 tariff could rise from approximately 4.12 to 6.95 cents per kilowatt-hour. This component would increase by about 69%. The calculated increase for the entire bill would be lower, at 54% in the household used as an example, because the bill also includes other charges, such as the fixed charge, taxes, and meter rental.
The review comes just before the months when many households start using heating again. Even so, what each consumer ultimately pays will depend on their contracted tariff and actual consumption. The calculation of 910 euro describes what it would cost to maintain the price conditions projected by the organisation for that typical home for a year; it is not a fixed forecast of what gas will cost throughout the year.
How to know if this alert affects your contract
The first step is to check a recent bill and locate the name of your gas tariff. The organisation’s warning focuses on those who have a regulated tariff, identified as TUR. Within this tariff, the TUR.2 option corresponds to consumption between 5,000 kilowatt-hours and 15,000 kilowatt-hours per year, a range that may include households that use gas for heating.
If the contract is in the free market, the price will not necessarily change on October 1st in the same way: it will depend on the terms agreed upon with the energy supplier. And if the annual consumption is lower or higher than in the organisation example, the difference in euro will also be different. Therefore, before drawing conclusions from the announced percentage, it is advisable to check both the contracted plan and the kilowatt-hours consumed.
Advice on changing tariffs
Despite the potential price increase, the consumer organisation advises against impulsively abandoning the regulated tariff. According to its current comparisons, the regulated tariff remains competitive compared to many fixed-price offers on the free market. The organisation recommends waiting for the final October prices and then comparing the cost per kilowatt-hour, the fixed charge, the duration of the offer, and any additional services.
The key date will be the publication of the new tariff. Until then, the 54% increase and the €310 figure should be seen as a warning based on calculations by the organisation, not as an already approved increase for all bills. For Valencian households with gas, reviewing their contract and annual consumption now will allow them to see if the forecast reflects their situation or if it describes a very different scenario.
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